SPY rose 0.32% as 12 of 85 setups broke out; NOC was the pick
Market recap, bot performance, and scanner analysis for Tuesday, July 14.
The UnxEdge breakout scanner tracked 85 setups today and only 12 actually broke, which tells you the tape looked better on the surface than it traded underneath. This was a wedge pattern day where select tech strength carried the optics, but broad follow-through stayed thin and most breakouts still failed the test of durability.
Today’s move came with real macro context, not random drift. June CPI hit before the bell, and the market responded the way it usually does when inflation data does not force an immediate policy panic: growth got room to work, QQQ led, and traders leaned back into higher-beta names while keeping one eye on tomorrow’s PPI print. If CPI was the permission slip, chip-adjacent headlines were the accelerant, with Aehr Test Systems ripping on its Q4 numbers and ASML setting up as the next volatility event into Wednesday earnings.
That explains why tech had better intraday sponsorship than the index tape implied, even as the scanner still found more failed moves than completed ones. Semis are still week-over-week weak, but they improved materially from last week’s relative damage, while gold and materials clearly rotated out. Read that correctly: leadership narrowed, and narrow leadership is fine for tactical breakouts, but it is not the same thing as a healthy market. For context on the prior setup tape, here’s yesterday's debrief.
Market Snapshot
Green index close, messy breakout tape
Only 14.1% of total scans became breakouts, while failures outnumbered successful resolutions by nearly two-to-one. That is the key read on the day. Indexes closed green, but the breakout engine did not see a broad, forgiving tape.
Yesterday's Pick
RDDT bull stopped out
No spin needed. Yesterday’s RDDT long failed. In this environment, anything extended or dependent on clean continuation has been vulnerable to sharp rejection, and this one did not hold the risk line.
Arxe Pick of the Day
NOC had the best statistical case, but no swing pick was issued
NOC screened as the strongest setup of the group on raw expectancy. Highest win rate at 90.0%, strongest profit factor at 9.01, and a workable sample of 10 trades. In a tape where broad market strength was still questionable, relative strength in a bull setup mattered.
The system favored its tighter 3-bar structure over more extended alternatives like ISRG and weaker expectancy names like BROS. Still, no official Arxe swing pick was generated today, which is the right call when the stats are attractive but the broader breakout environment is not cooperative. For setup grades and levels, see live setups in the scanner.
NOC scanner chart – July 14, 2026 | UnxEdge
Bot Performance
Still paused, and that is better than forcing bad trades
Wex and Xcel are in training mode while strategy is being refined. The scanner and Arxe intelligence remain fully active. When trading resumes, every trade will be published here. You can watch Wex and Xcel trade live in the Edge Lab.
Missed Trades
The biggest money was mostly in downside names, and all of it was missed
RVOL 0.19x, Day -19.78%. Massive downside follow-through on almost no relative volume signal. Hard to catch with traditional confirmation filters. Genuine blind spot if the system wants event-style collapse trades.
RVOL 1.0x, Day -7.16%. This is the one that hurts. Top grade, clean downside resolution, and enough quality to deserve attention even in a mixed tape.
RVOL 0.85x, Day -2.08%. Another strong bear that worked without needing flashy volume. That matters because today’s clean moves were not all high-RVOL momentum names.
RVOL 0.87x, Day +8.79%. A legitimate long that had enough impulse to pay despite the choppy broader tape.
RVOL 0.65x, Day +11.89%. Good move, but not the kind of runner that demands regret. Missing this is tolerable if the filter is trying to avoid lower-liquidity noise.
RVOL 0.61x, Day +5.59%. Broke, but barely paid. This is not a miss that should force system changes.
Breakout Scorecard
More trap doors than launch pads
Notable names that resolved included BROS bear A-, COST bear A-, ETSY bull A-, FTNT bull A-, ISRG bear A, and JPM bull B. Mixed list, mixed tape. The best quality move on paper was still the ISRG downside break.
Watch Tomorrow
Specific levels matter more than opinions into PPI and ASML earnings
These are the unresolved A and A- names still coiling. Keep them level-based. No guessing. For live grades and intraday trigger changes, see live setups in the scanner.